jetgraphics
Back on Track
As an advocate for the restoration / expansion of electric traction rail transportation in America, I often find that there are special interests opposed to rail. I call them the anti-rail hegemony. Some of the parties are known via the National City Lines scandal. Others, based on politics and 'business is war,' involve collusion and corruption, to advance their competing modes (air travel, pneumatic tire on pavement, etc) via subsidies for themselves and tax penalties on their rivals.
Taken for a Ride (documentary)
The U.S. History of the Assault on Public Transport in the Last Century
What I was trying to find, was the definitive list of persuasive factors that would elevate the need for electric traction rail to the top of the list. There is an entrenched belief that Americans have "Freedom of the Road," and rail service threatens that, despite evidence to the contrary. Worse, car ownership devours 25% (or more) of the family budget, making transportation inordinately expensive in America.
PEAKED OIL
_ _ Global sales and production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles peaked between 2017 and 2018. Because the average lifespan of a car is roughly 15 years, the total number of ICE vehicles in operation globally is expected to peak in the mid-2020s before being scrapped faster than new ones are built.
_ _ Global conventional crude oil production is often cited by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as having peaked in 2006. However, overall worldwide oil production (which includes all liquids and condensates) saw its highest quarterly output recorded in Q3 2018.
_ _ Despite fracking, horizontal drilling, oil shale and shale oil, these are a temporary respite for America’s petroleum supply. Depending on which reserve number, America is scheduled to go bust in 11, 34, or 67 years.
GO RAIL, WORLDWIDE
The production and operation outlook for electric traction rail mass transit is experiencing transformative growth, driven by global energy goals, rapid urbanization, and favorable cost-of-ownership economics.
_ _ The global electric locomotive market is expected to surge from $8.35 billion in 2026 to $20.17 billion by 2034. Mass transit is the fastest-growing sector, driven by major rail electrification and modernization projects across the globe.
[] Except in America, plagued by its anti-rail hegemony !
I thought that the inexplicable destruction of America's urban rail and passenger service were tied to mundane greed, avarice, and hubris - where the powerful rail roads were getting too big for their britches, and were 'spanked' by Uncle Sam. (Loss of mail-by-rail contracts, FRA abuse, taxation abuse, loss of rights of way, etc)
But I came upon another, obscure but verifiable factor - deliberate depopulation.
In 1967, "Population Policy: Will Current Programs Succeed?" published in Science, Kingsley Davis (who coined the term “population explosion”) wrote that if a government wanted, they could control population by various steps which included : [] Increase congestion in cities by starving the transit system. [] Make housing very scarce by limiting construction.
If depopulation is the real agenda, then our efforts at arguing for rail renaissance is futile. All our logical arguments about 20:1 advantage from co:efficient of rolling resistance, 3:1 advantage of electric traction over diesel-electric traction locomotives, durability, scalability, minimal surface requirements, and its suitability to serve high population density mega-cities is for naught.
The one stand out example of the opposite is China.
CHINA has devoted substantial resources to building urban rail as well as high speed rail. China went from having no modern metro systems, to an ever growing network. As of December 2024, China has the world's longest urban rail transit system with 11,000.88 km (6,835.63 mi) of urban rail nationwide in 310 metro lines in 47 cities, accounting for 9 of the 10 longest metro systems, with the exceptions of the Moscow Metro.
One possible explanation is that their "One Child Policy" already triggered an irreversible depopulation trend, so that rail-wise development wasn't a threat to the ultimate goal. Ditto, for more construction of housing.
The graying of Europe, their demographic crisis, also may be why the anti-rail hegemony is slacking off there. England has been actively rebuilding trams. Even former west Berlin is rebuilding lines that were pulled up post-war.
This raises the question : are the demographically challenged countries the ones with the most progress in advanced urban, interurban and long distance passenger service?
And if we expose this covert agenda, can we get America ‘back on track’?
HISTORICAL NOTE : over a century ago, America had the most track length - 5 times that of modern China.
[] Streetcar track: 34,404 miles (55,367 km) by 1907, in over 140 cities, with 60,000 cars in service.
[] Interurban track: 15,500 miles (24,944 km) by 1917
[] "Heavy" (Steam) tracks : 254,000 miles (394,289 km)
Taken for a Ride (documentary)
The U.S. History of the Assault on Public Transport in the Last Century
What I was trying to find, was the definitive list of persuasive factors that would elevate the need for electric traction rail to the top of the list. There is an entrenched belief that Americans have "Freedom of the Road," and rail service threatens that, despite evidence to the contrary. Worse, car ownership devours 25% (or more) of the family budget, making transportation inordinately expensive in America.
PEAKED OIL
_ _ Global sales and production of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles peaked between 2017 and 2018. Because the average lifespan of a car is roughly 15 years, the total number of ICE vehicles in operation globally is expected to peak in the mid-2020s before being scrapped faster than new ones are built.
_ _ Global conventional crude oil production is often cited by the International Energy Agency (IEA) as having peaked in 2006. However, overall worldwide oil production (which includes all liquids and condensates) saw its highest quarterly output recorded in Q3 2018.
_ _ Despite fracking, horizontal drilling, oil shale and shale oil, these are a temporary respite for America’s petroleum supply. Depending on which reserve number, America is scheduled to go bust in 11, 34, or 67 years.
GO RAIL, WORLDWIDE
The production and operation outlook for electric traction rail mass transit is experiencing transformative growth, driven by global energy goals, rapid urbanization, and favorable cost-of-ownership economics.
_ _ The global electric locomotive market is expected to surge from $8.35 billion in 2026 to $20.17 billion by 2034. Mass transit is the fastest-growing sector, driven by major rail electrification and modernization projects across the globe.
[] Except in America, plagued by its anti-rail hegemony !
I thought that the inexplicable destruction of America's urban rail and passenger service were tied to mundane greed, avarice, and hubris - where the powerful rail roads were getting too big for their britches, and were 'spanked' by Uncle Sam. (Loss of mail-by-rail contracts, FRA abuse, taxation abuse, loss of rights of way, etc)
But I came upon another, obscure but verifiable factor - deliberate depopulation.
In 1967, "Population Policy: Will Current Programs Succeed?" published in Science, Kingsley Davis (who coined the term “population explosion”) wrote that if a government wanted, they could control population by various steps which included : [] Increase congestion in cities by starving the transit system. [] Make housing very scarce by limiting construction.
If depopulation is the real agenda, then our efforts at arguing for rail renaissance is futile. All our logical arguments about 20:1 advantage from co:efficient of rolling resistance, 3:1 advantage of electric traction over diesel-electric traction locomotives, durability, scalability, minimal surface requirements, and its suitability to serve high population density mega-cities is for naught.
The one stand out example of the opposite is China.
CHINA has devoted substantial resources to building urban rail as well as high speed rail. China went from having no modern metro systems, to an ever growing network. As of December 2024, China has the world's longest urban rail transit system with 11,000.88 km (6,835.63 mi) of urban rail nationwide in 310 metro lines in 47 cities, accounting for 9 of the 10 longest metro systems, with the exceptions of the Moscow Metro.
One possible explanation is that their "One Child Policy" already triggered an irreversible depopulation trend, so that rail-wise development wasn't a threat to the ultimate goal. Ditto, for more construction of housing.
The graying of Europe, their demographic crisis, also may be why the anti-rail hegemony is slacking off there. England has been actively rebuilding trams. Even former west Berlin is rebuilding lines that were pulled up post-war.
This raises the question : are the demographically challenged countries the ones with the most progress in advanced urban, interurban and long distance passenger service?
And if we expose this covert agenda, can we get America ‘back on track’?
HISTORICAL NOTE : over a century ago, America had the most track length - 5 times that of modern China.
[] Streetcar track: 34,404 miles (55,367 km) by 1907, in over 140 cities, with 60,000 cars in service.
[] Interurban track: 15,500 miles (24,944 km) by 1917
[] "Heavy" (Steam) tracks : 254,000 miles (394,289 km)
